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The Soviet System in Crisis : Prospects for the Next Two Years

By Central Intelegence Agent

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Book Id: WPLBN0000704870
Format Type: PDF eBook
File Size: 1.66 MB.
Reproduction Date: 2006

Title: The Soviet System in Crisis : Prospects for the Next Two Years  
Author: Central Intelegence Agent
Volume:
Language: English
Subject: Government publications, CIA research reports, National security.
Collections: CIA Documents Collection
Historic
Publication Date:
Publisher: Central Intelegence Agent

Citation

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Agent, C. I. (n.d.). The Soviet System in Crisis : Prospects for the Next Two Years. Retrieved from http://cn.ebooklibrary.org/


Excerpt
Excerpt: Key Judgments; The crisis, precipitated by long-simmering problems and Gorbachev's policies to address them, will continue over the next two years and beyond and could threaten the system's viability: Ethnic problems are endemic: conflict between the center and regions will increase as will interethnic strife, and the regime can at best hope to manage and cope with these problems, not resolve them. Economic ills are deeply rooted in the system, and efforts to reform it will be slowed by the priority given to stabilizing the economy. At the same time changes in the Soviet leadership during the last year have made Gorbachev's position relatively secure over the next two years and portend a more radical approach to addressing the nation's daunting problems. We believe: Gorbachev's power has been significantly enhanced with the weakening of the leadership's orthodox wing and the development of a second power base in the legislature. The coming local and republic legislative elections and the party congress next October will probably further undermine the role of the party apparatus, increase the power of the legislature in decision making, and bring a de facto multiparty system to some republics. More stringent measures-possibly including some retail price increases and domestic currency devaluation are likely to be imposed as part of the current economic stabilization program. Although the need to stabilize the economy has slowed the economic reform effort, we expect to see the introduction of a number of controversial measures-including a redefinition of property rights, a new taxation system, and antitrust legislation-that are designed to enlarge the role of the free market and private enterprise.

 
 



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