CIA Documents Collection


Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Collection provides the public with access to CIA declassified publications. As part of the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) & Electronic Reading Room digital access to previously classified historic documents can now be made available.

 
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North America

By: Central Intelegence Agent

Excerpt: NORTH AMERICA

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Oceania

By: Central Intelegence Agent

Excerpt: OCEANIA

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Welcome to the Inaugural Issue of the Kent Center Occasional Papers

By: Sherman Kent Center

Excerpt: September 2002; Welcome to the inaugural issue of the Kent Center Occasional Papers. This new, periodic publication is intended to help the Kent Center fulfill its mission of promoting the practice of analytic tradecraft in the Directorate of Intelligence, and of furthering a greater understanding of intelligence analysis in the wider communities in which it is practiced, studied, or taught. Toward the latter end, unclassified Occasional Papers will be dissemina...

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Sherman Kent Center for Intelligence Analysis Occasional Papers : ...

By: Jack Davis

Excerpt: A host of reports have been written over the 50 years of CIA history evaluating analytic performance and recommending changes in priorities and tradecraft. These ?post-mortem reports? have been issued by Agency leaders and components as well as by Congressional committees and commissions and non-governmental organizations concerned about intelligence performance. Starting with the 1990s, post-mortem reports increased in number, generated both by charges of speci...

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The Sherman Kent Center for Intelligence Analysis Occasional Paper...

By: Jack Davis

Excerpt: A host of reports have been written over the 50 years of CIA history evaluating analytic performance and recommending changes in priorities and tradecraft. These ?post-mortem reports? have been issued by Agency leaders and components as well as by Congressional committees and commissions and non-governmental organizations concerned about intelligence performance. Starting with the 1990s, post-mortem reports increased in number, generated both by charges of speci...

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Understanding and Teaching Intelligence Analysis : A Discipline fo...

By: Sherman Kent Center

Excerpt: October 2002 Editor?s Note: This engaging, anecdote-rich essay, was delivered as a keynote speech on 23 May 2002 at the Kent Center Conference on ?Understanding and Teaching Intelligence Analysis: A Discipline for the 21st Century.? In it, Professor Wilhelm Agrell of the University of Lund, Sweden reflects on the evolution of the practice of intelligence analysis into a modern profession. Highlighting what intelligence analysis is and, importantly, is not, he qu...

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Sherman Kent and the Profession of Intelligence Analysis

By: Jack Davis

Excerpt: In the 1930s, Sherman Kent believed that life provided no more worthy professional calling than persuading Yale University undergraduates that an understanding of history was essential to development of a first-rate intellect. Professor Kent?s tools of persuasion included a reputation for tough grading, a colorful personal style, and an enthusiasm for drawing wisdom from the study of History 10, ?Development of European Civilization.? With the onset of World War...

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Changing Soviet Perceptions

By: Central Intelegence Agent

Excerpt: A new note of Soviet self-confidence in international affairs, seen in Moscow as validating the concept of a progressive historical march, is emerged in the 1970's other major powers are not viewed as having changed their basically hostile attitudes toward the USSR, but the Soviets feel greater assurance about their capacity to deal with them and less exaggerated ?.

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We Live in What Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld Has Called a World D...

By: Sherman Kent Center

Excerpt: January 2003 Editor?s Note: We live in what Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld has called ?a world defined by surprise and uncertainty.? In this timely and thoughtful paper, first circulated in draft at a workshop sponsored by the DI?s Global Futures Partnership in May 2002, Kent Center Research Scholar Jack Davis reminds us that warning is an analytic discipline and that strategic warning, in particular, is a unique analytic challenge that demands continued reassess...

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The Sherman Kent Center for Intelligence Analysis Occasional Paper...

By: Jack Davis

Excerpt: This memorandum on tensions in analyst-policymaker relations is occasioned by recent media accounts of DOD-Intelligence Community differences over the extent of Iraqi-al Qa?ida ties. Similar patterns of tension have existed over the decades. The following conclusions could have been crafted about Vietnam War issues in the 1960s, Soviet strategic intentions in the 1970s, or Central American insurgencies in the 1980s. 1. Tension over policymaker criticism of intel...

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The Sherman Kent Center for Intelligence Analysis Occasional Paper...

By: Jack Davis

Excerpt: Sherman Kent, widely recognized as the single most influential cont ributor to the analytic doctrine and tradecraft practiced in CIA?s Directorate of Intelligence, was long seized with the importance, and difficulty, of establishing effective relationships between intelligence analysts and policy officials. Based on World War II experience in the Research and Analysis Branch of OSS, Kent concluded that analysts, ever the junior partners, had to carry the larger ...

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Occasional Papers Making Sense of Transnational Threats

By: Sherman Kent Center

Excerpt: October 2004 The Kent Center is pleased to publish as part of its Occasional Papers series this ?think piece? on how to understand and address the unique analytical challenges posed by complex and fast-moving transnational threats such as terrorism, WMD proliferation, and organized crime. Co-authored by Warren Fishbein of the Kent Center?s Global Futures Partnership and Gregory Treverton of the RAND Corporation, the paper proposes some practical ideas for adapti...

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Occasional Papers Rethinking Alternative Analysis to Address Trans...

By: Sherman Kent Center

Excerpt: October 2004 The Kent Center is pleased to publish as part of its Occasional Papers series this ?think piece? on how to understand and address the unique analytical challenges posed by complex and fast-moving transnational threats such as terrorism, WMD proliferation, and organized crime. Distilled from a longer piece also co-authored by Warren Fishbein of the Kent Center?s Global Futures Partnership and Gregory Treverton of the RAND Corporation, this paper prop...

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Possibility of Direct Soviet Military Action during 1948

By: Central Intelegence Agent

Excerpt: THE PROBLEM; 1. We have been directed to estimate the likelihood of a Soviet resort to direct military action during 1948.

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Possibility of Direct Soviet Military Action during 1948-49

By: Central Intelegence Agent

Excerpt: THE PROBLEM; 1. We have been directed to estimate if the events of the past six months have increased or decreased the likelihood of a Soviet resort to military action during 1948-49.

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The Possibility of Direct Soviet Military Action during 1949

By: Central Intelegence Agent

Excerpt: THE PROBLEM 1. We have been directed to estimate the likelihood of a Soviet resort to direct military action during 1949.

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The Strategic Value to the Ussr of the Conquest of Western Europe ...

By: Central Intelegence Agent

Excerpt: 1. TO analyze and evaluate the advantages and disadvantages that would accrue to the USSR if should elect, prior to 1950, to overrun the European continent and the near east (to Cairo), with a view to determining whether or not the strategic position thus acquired would be sufficiently per se to induce Soviet leaders to adopt such a course of action.

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Central Intelligence : Origin and Evolution

By: Admiral David E. Jeremiah

Excerpt: In May 2001, President George W. Bush directed that the Director of Central Intelligence commission the first in-depth study of the nation?s Intelligence Community in three decades. The panels appointed by DCI George Tenet will soon provide him, and the President, with their findings about the shape of the changing international order and the ability of the Intelligence Community to respond to the national security challenges and opportunities of the 21st Centur...

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Origins of Cia's Analysis of the Soviet Union, 1947-1991

By: Central Intelegence Agent

Excerpt: Origins of CIA?s Analysis of the Soviet Union Author?s Comments: Donald Steury Berlin, the political flashpoint of the early Cold War, was a catalyst for the development of a strategic analysis capability in CIA. The end of World War II found the Allies in an increasingly tenuous quadripartite occupation of the city, which was complicated by its position deep inside the Russian occupation zone. As the wartime alliance fragmented, the continued Western presence i...

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The Track Record in Strategic Estimating

By: Central Intelegence Agent

Excerpt: CONCLUSIONS 1. The intelligence community, as judged by the findings in its national estimates has a good record of detecting and determining major characteristics and missions of new weapons system soon after testing beginning and usually will before ?

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