CIA Documents Collection


Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Collection provides the public with access to CIA declassified publications. As part of the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) & Electronic Reading Room digital access to previously classified historic documents can now be made available.

 
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Soviet Capabilities for Strategic Attack

By: Central Intelegence Agent

Excerpt: THE PROBLEM; To estimate probable trends in the strength and deployment of Soviet forces for strategic attack and in Soviet capabilities for such attack through mid-1970.

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Soviet Strategic Air and Missile Defense

By: Central Intelegence Agent

Excerpt: The problem to estimate the capabilities and limitations of Soviet strategic air and missile defense forces through mid-1967 and general trends in these forces through 1975.

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Soviet Policy Toward Eastern Europe under Gorbachev

By: Janos Kadar

Excerpt: KEY JUDGMENTS; General Secretary Gorbachev's policies have increased the potential for instability in Eastern Europe. But they have also expanded the scope for diversity and experimentation, affording new possibilities for evolutionary reform in the region. Gorbachev has set an ambitious agenda for Eastern Europe. His aims are to secure East European support for the Soviet modernization drive, promote broader Soviet foreign policy objectives through closer Warsa...

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Trends and Developments in Warsaw Pact Theater Forces and Doctrine...

By: Central Intelegence Agent

Excerpt: Key Judgments; We judge that the Soviet leadership's security policies will produce, during the period of this Estimate, the most significant changes in Soviet general purpose forces since Khrushchev's drastic force reductions. We further assess these policies are designed primarily to help the Soviet leadership revitalize the Soviet economy by shifting resources from defense to civilian sectors. We also believe decisions already undertaken signal a sharp diverg...

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The Republics of the Former Ussr : The 0Utlook for the Next Year

By: Central Intelegence Agent

Excerpt: Note; The Republics of the Former USSR: The Outlook for the Next Year (C NF) This Estimate examines the key factors that will determine developments in the USSR (excluding the Baltic states) over the next year and the possible alternative outcomes. It focuses primarily on the question of interrepublic relations within and outside a union. Although many internal factors will be important determinants of the long-term course of political and economic development o...

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Civil Disorder in the Former Ussr : Can It Be Managed This Winter?

By: Central Intelegence Agent

Excerpt: Key Judgments Civil Disorder in the Former USSR: Can It Be Managed This Winter? (v Severe economic conditions, the fragmentation of the armed forces, and ongoing interethnic conflict this winter will combine to produce the most significant civil disorder in the former USSR since the BoIsheviks consolidated power. (w Directly targeted and administered Western assistance would improve Russia's chances of maintaining stability through the winter, but the odds of pr...

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The Republics of the Former Ussr : The 0Utlook for the Next Year

By: Central Intelegence Agent

Excerpt: Scope Note The Republics of the Former USSR: The Outlook for the Next Year (C NF) This Estimate examines the key factors that will determine developments in the USSR (excluding the Baltic states) over the next year and the possible alternative outcomes. It focuses primarily on the question of interrepublic relations within and outside a union. Although many internal factors will be important determinants of the long-term course of political and economic developm...

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The Soviet System in Crisis : Prospects for the Next Two Years

By: Central Intelegence Agent

Excerpt: Key Judgments; The crisis, precipitated by long-simmering problems and Gorbachev's policies to address them, will continue over the next two years and beyond and could threaten the system's viability: Ethnic problems are endemic: conflict between the center and regions will increase as will interethnic strife, and the regime can at best hope to manage and cope with these problems, not resolve them. Economic ills are deeply rooted in the system, and efforts to re...

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The Deepening Crisis in the Ussr : Prospects for the Next Year

By: Central Intelegence Agent

Excerpt: Key Judgments; The USSR is in the midst of a historic transformation that threatens to tear the country apart. The old Communist order is in its death throes. But its diehards remain an obstructive force, and new political parties and institutions have yet to prove their effectiveness. The erosion of the center's influence, coupled with the republics' assertion of sovereignty, is creating a power vacuum. Gorbachev has amassed impressive power on paper, but his a...

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Implications of Alternative Soviet Futures

By: Central Intelegence Agent

Excerpt: Key Judgments; Implications of Alternative Soviet Futures The USSR is in the midst of a revolution that probably will sweep the Communist Party from power and reshape the country within the five-year time frame of this Estimate. The outcome of this revolution will be affected by a number of factors, including the following: A sharply declining economy and standard of living that will get worse for the next few years no matter what economic program is adopted. Th...

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Gorbachev's Economic Programs : The Challenges Ahead

By: Central Intelegence Agent

Excerpt: recalcitrant bureaucracy. The comparatively high prices of privately supplied goods will spur inflation. An added problem for Moscow is that these reforms probably will be most successful, at least initially, in non- Russian areas such as the Baltic states and the Caucasus.+ We do not foresee a large, sustained increase in Soviet imports from the West. The Soviets may increase borrowing to perhaps $3-4 billion net per year over the next few years. Even a much la...

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The Winter of the Soviet Military : Cohesion or Collapse

By: Central Intelegence Agent

Excerpt: Kev Judgments The Winter of the Soviet Military: Cohesion or Collapse?- * Forces unleashed by the collapse of the Soviet system are breaking up its premier artifact-the Soviet military; the high command cannot halt this process. While a centralized command and control system continues to operate, political and economic collapse is beginning to fragment the military into elements loyal to the republics or simply devoted to self-preservation. These forces include:...

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Soviet Forces and Capabilities for Strategic Nuclear Conflict thro...

By: Central Intelegence Agent

Excerpt: Key Judgments We have prepared this year's Estimate against the backdrop of considerable ferment in the national security arena in the Soviet Union that could over time result in a change in the Soviets' military outlook. Gorbachev has shown himself willing and able to challenge long-cherished precepts in this as in other policy areas. The evidence presented in this Estimate indicates, however, that, in terms of what the Soviets spend, what they procure, how the...

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Soviet Forces and Capabilities for Strategic Nuclear Conflict thro...

By: Central Intelegence Agent

Excerpt: Key Judgments New Policy Context We confront divergent trends in Soviet strategic nuclear policy. On one hand, the diminished Soviet conventional threat to Western Europe has significantly lessened the chances of East-West conflict and thus of global nuclear war. On the other hand, Soviet strategic nuclear forces remain large and powerful, major modernization programs are in progress, and Soviet nuclear strategy evidently retains its traditional war-fighting ori...

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Soviet Policy Toward the West : The Gorbachev Challenge

By: Central Intelegence Agent

Excerpt: Key Judgments I Dramatic changes in approach to the West under Soviet leader Gorbachev are driven by economic and social decay at home, a widening technological gap with the West, and a growing realism about trends in the outside world. For the foreseeable future, the USSR will remain the West's principal adversary. But the process Gorbachev has set in motion is likely to change the nature of the Soviet challenge over the next five years or so: New Soviet polici...

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The Future of Eastern Europe

By: Central Intelegence Agent

Excerpt: Key Judgments Communist p;arty rule in Eastern Europe is finished, and it will not be revived. This and the lifting of Soviet hegemony create new opportunities for establishing representative democracies and self-sustaining market economies. The way will also open for new modes of regional political and economic cooperation. The greatest impetus is the resolve of East Europeans and their leaders to achieve reforms by emulating Western economic and political mode...

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Warning of War in Europe : Changing Warsaw Pact Planning and Forces

By: Central Intelegence Agent

Excerpt: Key Judgments; The warning times we associate with possible Warsaw Pact preparations for war with NATO in Central Europe have increased significantly from those set forth in NIE 4-1-84. These changes are a direct consequence of Soviet assessments of improved NATO military capability, our improved understanding of the Soviet process of transitioning to war, and changes in Soviet peacetime readiness. Accordingly, before unilateral force reductions, we assess that:...

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Key Judgments

By: Central Intelegence Agent

Excerpt: The USSR's invasion of Afghanistan in December 1979 provided a rare opportunity to test the efficacy of the US warning system in situations involving substantial movements of the Soviets armed forces outside their borders. Moreover it afforded a chance to examine the behavior of the Soviet military in preparing for such an undertaking and to determine what implications this might have for the intelligence community's capacity to provide warning in other situatio...

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Soviet Tactical Nuclear Forces and Gorbachev's Nuclear Pledges : I...

By: Central Intelegence Agent

Excerpt: Key Judgments; The Potential Impact of Gorbachev's Proposals The withdrawal of many Soviet units from Eastern Europe and reductions in the size and number of units within the Atlantic-to-the-Urals zone that have occurred over the past two years already have caused a sharp decline in the number of tactical nuclear systems in Soviet forces opposite NATO.

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North America

By: Central Intelegence Agent

Excerpt: NORTH AMERICA

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